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Scenario Data for the Atmospheric Environment

The SRES A1FI Emissions Scenarios

Key Assumptions

A future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world, people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.

    1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.90 8.65 11.19 14.61 18.66 23.10 25.14 27.12 29.04 29.64 30.32
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.08 1.55 1.57 1.31 0.80 0.55 0.16 -0.36 -1.22 -2.08
Total CO2 GtC 7.10 7.97 9.73 12.73 16.19 19.97 23.90 25.69 27.28 28.68 28.42 28.24
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 359 416 489 567 630 655 677 695 715 735
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7.0 8.0 9.3 10.9 12.8 14.5 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.6
SOx total MtS 70.9 69.0 80.8 86.9 96.1 94.0 80.5 56.3 42.6 39.4 39.8 40.1
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1020 1204 1436 1726 2159 2270 2483 2776 2685 2570
NMVOC Mt 139 141 166 192 214 256 322 361 405 449 435 420
Tropospheric O3 DU 34.0 35.8 38.4 41.5 45.1 49.6 51.9 53.8 55.9 55.6 55.2
NOx MtN 31 32 40 50 63 77 95 102 109 115 111 110

The SRES A1T Emissions Scenarios

Key Assumptions

A future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world, people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Fossil Fuel CO2 GtC 5.99 6.9 8.33 10 12.26 12.6 12.29 11.41 9.91 8.05 6.27 4.31
Other CO2 GtC 1.11 1.07 1.04 0.26 0.12 0.05 -0.02 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.01 0
Total CO2 GtC 7.1 7.97 9.38 10.26 12.38 12.65 12.26 11.38 9.87 8.02 6.26 4.32
CH4 total MtCH4 310 323 362 415 483 495 500 459 404 359 317 274
N2O total MtN2O-N 6.7 7 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 6 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4
SOx total MtS 70.9 69 64.7 59.9 59.6 46.6 40.2 34.4 30.1 25.2 23.3 20.2
CFC/HFC/HCFC MtC eq. 1672 883 791 337 369 482 566 654 659 654 639 614
PFC MtC eq. 32 25 31 43 61 77 89 97 106 114 119 115
SF6 MtC eq. 38 40 43 48 66 99 119 127 113 88 84 95
CO MtCO 879 877 1003 1147 1362 1555 1770 1944 2078 2164 2156 2077
NMVOC Mt 139 141 164 190 212 229 241 242 229 199 167 128
tropospheric O3 DU 34 35.6 37.7 40.3 41.9 42.9 43.1 41.9 40.2 38.4 36.5
NOx MtN 31 32 39 46 56 60 61 60 52 43 35 28

The SRES A1B Emissions Scenarios

Key Assumptions

A future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technology. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. In this world, people pursue personal wealth rather than environmental quality.

The SRES B1 Emissions Scenarios

Key Assumptions

A convergent world with the same global population as in the A1 storyline but with rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in materials intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies.

The SRES A2 Emissions Scenarios

Key Assumptions

A very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is that of strengthening regional cultural identities, with an emphasis on family values and local traditions, high population growth, and less concern for rapid economic development.

The SRES B2 Emissions Scenarios

Key Assumptions

A world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is again a heterogeneous world with less rapid, and more diverse technological change but a strong emphasis on community initiative and social innovation to find local, rather than global solutions.

Non-SRES Scenario: PICTL

Experiments run with constant pre-industrial levels of greenhouse gasses.

Non-SRES Scenario: 20C3M

Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing as observed through the 20th century.

Non-SRES Scenario: COMMIT

An idealised scenario in which the atmospheric burdens of long-lived greenhouse gasses are held fixed at AD2000 levels.

Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO2X (1% to double)

Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has doubled and held constant thereafter.

Non-SRES Scenario: 1PTO4X (1% to quadruple)

Experiments run with greenhouse gasses increasing from pre-industrial levels at a rate of 1% per year until the concentration has quadrupled and held constant thereafter.

For more comprehensive information about any of the SRES emissions scenarios, visit the SRES web site at CIESIN.


Content last modified: 02 April 2014