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Model output described in the 1995 IPCC Second Assessment Report* (IS92 scenarios), 30-year means

A large number of climate change experiments using General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been completed in recent years, both equilibrium and transient experiments, and both experiments forced with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations alone and those forced with greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol changes.

The IPCC TGICA defined a set of criteria that have been applied to identify GCM experiments whose results could be deposited at the IPCC DDC, experiments which could therefore form the basis for impacts assessments undertaken from 1998 onwards. These criteria included:

  • An IS92a-type forcing scenario
  • Historically-forced integrations
  • Integrations without/with aerosol forcing and up to 2100 for greenhouse gas only
  • Integrations with results available now and with data lodged in the public domain
  • Documented models
  • Models that have participated in AMIP/CMIP

These criteria led to an initial selection of experiments from seven modelling centres, with the possibility of others to be added in subsequent months as they qualify for inclusion.

  • The UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HadCM2)
  • The German Climate Research Centre (ECHAM4)
  • The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CGCM1)
  • The US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-R15)
  • The Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO-Mk2)
  • The National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR-DOE)
  • The Japanese Centre for Climate System Research (CCSR)

From these pages predefined climate change scenarios for 30-year timeslices and an observed climate dataset can be downloaded. The scenarios have been constructed from the results of the GCM climate change experiments that can be found at the DDC GCM Data Archive and are the same data that can be viewed at the Data Visualisation Pages. Please note that daily fields are only available directly from the respective modelling centres.

GCM Climate Change Scenarios

Scenarios constructed from the climate change experiments performed using seven GCMs can be downloaded via the table below together with full details of the experiments.

GCM 1% per annum forcing GHG only (Equivalent to IS92a) 0.5% per annum forcing GHG only (Equivalent to IS92d) 1% per annum forcing GHG and Sulphates (Equivalent to IS92a) 0.5% per annum forcing GHG and Sulphates (Equivalent to IS92d)
CCSR/NIES
(Notes)
1
2100
. 1
2100
.
CGCM1
(Notes)
1
2100
. 3
2100
.
CSIRO-Mk2b
(Notes)
1
2100
. 1
2100
.
ECHAM4
(Notes)
1
2100
. 1
2100
.
GFDL-R15
(Notes)
1
2040
. 1
2040
.
HadCM2
(Notes)
4
2100
4
2100
4
2100
4
2100
NCAR-DOE
(Notes)
1
2040
. 1
2040
.

Key:

a: = Number of integrations (i.e., members of ensemble)

b: = End year of integrations

To access the data from the integrations click on the model name.

 

Page last modified: 16 May 2011

* Most models outputs are referred to in the report, but a few (comparable) outputs were included later.
NCAS, British Atmospheric Data Centre NERC NCAS

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DECC - Department of Energy and Climate Change