Scenarios of potential future anthropogenic climate change, underlying driving forces, and response options have always been an important component of the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In the past, the IPCC coordinated the process of developing scenarios for its assessments. During its 25th session (Mauritius, 26-28 April 2006), the IPCC decided that rather than directly coordinating and approving new scenarios itself, the process of scenario development will now be coordinated by the research community.

The IPCC seeks to “catalyze” the timely production by others of new scenarios for a possible Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The material contained on this site provides background to the IPCC's decision, as well as links to information on the ongoing process for those who wish to get access to the data or participate in scenario creation. The site will be updated regularly.

The following graphic (figure 3 from the report 'IPCC Expert Meeting Report, Noordwijkerhout, Sept. 2007') provides an overall sense of the schedule. More detailed information is available in the documents which can be linked to from the bottom of this page.

Acronyms

RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway IAM: Integrated Assessment Model CMC: Climate Modelling Community IAV: Impacts Adaption and Vulnerability

Supporting documents

1. The Expert Meeting report, Noordwijkerhout, 2007 and transmittal letter to the Panel
2. Report of the IPCC Expert Meeting on Emissions Scenarios in Washington, DC in January 2005
3. Report of the Workshop on New Scenarios in Laxenburg, Austria in June/July 2005
4. Recommendations of the Task Group on New Emissions Scenarios, submitted to the Panel in March 2006

Page last modified: 01 December 2008